The latest reports from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Change and Society indicate that there are high probabilities of the occurrence of an El Niño event in 2018/19. This is forecast to trigger below average rains in most of the country until April next year, bearing a high risk for the 2019 main Maha paddy output as well as the early development stages of the secondary Yala paddy season, to be sown in April and May.