|Event:|| CE Complex Emergency|
|Country:|| AFG Afghanistan|
|Date (YMD):|| 2021-8-6|
|Information Source:||IPC http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1154300/|
|Comments:|| The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated dramatically due to several compounding factors such as internal conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic and its socio-economic consequences as well as multiple droughts in 2019 and 2021. More than 558,000 Afghans have been internally displaced by the conflict since January 2021. Some 80 per cent of these newly internally displaced are women and children.
According to the drought declaration by the Afghanistan government of 22 June 2021, the country’s wheat crop will be reduced by nearly two million tons, and more than three million livestock are in danger of perishing due to a lack of fodder and water. According to IPC projections for the period June – November 2021, 2,742,741 Afghans are likely to be classified in Phase 4 (catastrophic) in terms of Food Insecurity and 6,719,607 in Phase 3 (emergency). The compounding impacts of drought and conflict which escalated in July and the first half of August have exacerbated the hard living conditions in a country that is also grappling with COVID-19 and poverty.
Based on analysis of the ongoing social, economic, political and security situation in Afghanistan, it is assessed that a further political and humanitarian deterioration in the country may result in new population movement to neighbouring countries. A potential worst-case scenario – utilized by the UNHCR and inter-agency partners - envisages the arrival of an additional 515,000 Afghan refugees into neighbouring countries before the end of 2021.|